In the week leading up to release, Wicked: For Good pulled in US $30.8 million from preview screenings (i.e., early showings before the official Friday release), which is the highest preview number of the year so far.
To break that down: it shows strong interest ahead of the main weekend, signaling that fans have been eager and ready.
Why this figure is meaningful:
- A high preview number generally correlates with a large opening weekend.
- It suggests strong marketing, fanbase engagement and perhaps ticket-pre-sales doing well.
- It sets higher expectations (for better or worse).
Opening Weekend Projections: Big Expectations
Going into its official opening (released 21 November 2025), the film has some serious projections:
- One estimate pegged the opening weekend at US $112 million to US $115 million domestically (US & Canada) — roughly matching what its predecessor achieved. Deadline
- Another projection suggested it might open even bigger — “$150 million-plus” is a figure that’s been discussed.
- On the global front, projections point towards over US $200 million for the worldwide opening.
What this tells us:
- The franchise has momentum: fans of the first film, plus new audiences, seem ready.
- Stakeholders believe this is one of the major holiday releases of the season.
- But big expectations also bring risk: if the film under-delivers, perception can change quickly.
Why the Buzz? What’s Driving the Momentum
Several factors are feeding into why Wicked: For Good is being watched closely:
- Strong Predecessor: The original Wicked (2024) did very well at the box office, built a large audience, and created brand awareness. That legacy gives the sequel a launchpad.
- Fanbase + Pre-Sales: Ticket pre-sales reportedly are very strong. For example: the film became the biggest “first-day ticket pre-seller” of the year on Fandango (for a PG rating). Strong pre-sales indicate that the “committed” fan audience is showing up early.
- Holiday Timing: Releasing just before the Thanksgiving/holiday window in the U.S. gives the film additional runway — families, groups, and casual movie-goers may choose this as a big outing.
- Large Theatre Count + Marketing: Big releases often place themselves in 4,000+ screens, heavily promoted. Where this happens, the opening weekend becomes a major event, not just a film release.
What Could Go Wrong? Key Risks
Even with strong numbers and momentum, there are things to watch out for:
- Legs (sustained performance) matter: A big opening creates buzz, but if the movie drops hard in week 2 and beyond, it may underperform lifetime expectations.
- Competition: Other big films may release around the same time. If audiences split their attention, performance could be impacted.
- Word-of-Mouth (WOM): Preview numbers don’t guarantee that people will keep recommending it. If early viewers aren’t happy, the momentum may slow.
- Global vs Domestic: While domestic numbers matter, global box office increasingly drives big hits. If the international market underperforms, that weakens the total.
- Cost and expectations: Big marketing and production budgets raise the bar for “success.” A film that opens well but doesn’t recover costs quickly becomes less profitable.
Why This Matters for the Film Business
Understanding Wicked: For Good’s launch means more than just one movie’s success. It points to larger trends:
- Musical & Family Genres Can Still Be Big: In a time when some film genres struggle, this film suggests musicals (or high-profile ones) still draw large audiences.
- Event Films vs Standard Releases: Films marketed as major events (big stars, huge marketing) may still capture audience attention, especially around holidays.
- Pre-Sales and Early Buzz Are Increasingly Important: With streaming competition and changing viewing habits, early ticket sales (including previews) are a strong predictor of opening success.
- Global Market Remains Critical: Success in the U.S. is important, but global markets now often make the biggest difference in recouping investment and making a film profitable.
- Franchise Value & Sequels: When a previous film builds an emotional or cultural connection with audiences, the next film can benefit — but also needs to meet expectations.
Final Thoughts
Wicked For Good is off to a very promising start. The preview numbers are impressive, projections are high, and the conditions (franchise strength, timing, fan interest) are favourable.
If everything aligns — strong opening weekend, good global numbers, solid word-of-mouth, and fewer threats from competition — this could become one of the major box-office winners of the year.
However, the film industry is unpredictable. Big launches can falter if public sentiment shifts or if later weeks disappoint. For the studios, the hope is not only for the opening to be strong, but for the “legs” to carry it through.
If you like, I can pull together a full projected box-office breakdown (domestic vs international), compare it with the first film’s performance, and highlight what it could mean for streaming and future releases for the franchise. Would you like me to do that?
